Once upon a time
Kufuu Consulting - 2025
Kufuu Consulting
Kufuu Consulting was started by Winfried Theis after he left Shell to continue contributing to the Energy Transition, and to share his expertise with many others. This expertise is especially in using data and statistical methods to solve problems in a structured and insightful way. One cornerstone of his expertise is statistical design of experiments, which he had used in many ways for Research and Development, but also to improve marketing and other areas.
Rediscovering - 2023

Rediscovering
Rediscovery of the enthusiasm for Design of Experiments happened, when Winfried was giving the DoE course again and had the lightbulb moment that teaching and communication of DoE needed to change. This got him thinking of the vision and mission for Kufuu. Thanks to a colleague, Pawel Dobrowolski, Winfried met Christian Grün from NovAzure.com. In the discussion about the idea of supporting green start-ups Christian triggered the idea to offer scenario analysis making use of Winfrieds experience from a project in Shell.
Getting involved with Energy - 2011-2016

Getting involved with Energy
In 2011Winfried started as internal statistical Consultant at Shell. For six years he supported projects with product development and process optimisation making use of design of experiments. For this he worked mainly with Catalyst, Lubricants, and Well Engineering R&D teams, which allowed him to finally work on literal deephole drilling! At Shell Winfried aslo learned the art of Scenario Modelling, and developed a Consumer Choice model for car drive trains applying his deep understanding of psychology and sociology to capture all influences.
Putting Knowledge into Action - 2007-2011

Putting Knowledge into Action
When Winfried joined Unilever R&D he started to put all his knowledge and understanding on DoE into practice. He devised a new way to design and analyse nutrition studies by measuring at well spread points during a study, not only at start and end as a typical clinical study would do, because interventions in nutrition are about change over time. At Unilever Winfried designed studies to learn about the impact of food and personal care on happiness and well-being. To that end he was part of a project developing a Good-Mood measurement for China.
Discovering - 1996

Discovering
Winfried joined Technical University of Dortmund to study Maths and Statistics. The combination was inspired by Isaac Asimov's Foundation trilogy, and Winfrieds interest in Social Sciences and drive to apply maths in them. In the second half of his studies Prof. Dr. Claus Weihs came to TU Dortmund after a career at Ciba Geigy, now Novartis. Prof. Weihs taught Statistics from a very practical point of view and introduced Winfried to all the important tecxhniques of industrial statistics, including Statistical Design of Experiments. This in the end led to Winfried joining Prof. Weihs team and working on three different research projects. His PhD thesis included was about Modelling Varying Amplitudes, centering around the third project with mechanical engineers working on BTA deephole drilling (long holes in metal).
A school project - 1988

A school project
It all started when little Winfried Theis built a water turbine for a school project, after a failed attempt to build a wind turbine.
What is Kufuu?
Kufuu started as this idea of combining the passions for anything to do with the energy transition and sustainability with the profound experience in using data science in R&D and for scaling up products and processes.
Because the method of statistical design of experiments is in fact a way to try things in a structured and targeted manner, the name of the company had to reflect this. Asking Perplexity.ai if there was a language, which had a word for this, it turned out that the Japanese word Kufuu 工夫 means exactly this: create a scheme, devising, figuring out, or solving something ingeniously. When first announced on LinkedIn Jesse Yang added that in Chinese it also means “taking your time to get things done right”.
The second expertise at the foundation of Kufuu is scenario modelling taking into account the sociological and psychological factors supporting or hindering the success of new developments. Scenarios are an important tool to assess risks and opportunities, as they are enabling to map out “What ifs” and describe potential future developments. Winfried had worked on such a model in Shell, particularly developing the consumer choice model for passenger cars. He was able to explain the shift from Petrol to Diesel engines in larger cars in Germany, by finding that some important brands had just changed the framing by switching the cheapest model from Petrol to Diesel, and thereby creating the perception that there was no price difference between these technologies.
Finally, no sustainable change can be achieved without transferring knowledge and enabling others to continue using the methods that they have seen to be useful to overcome challenges.
Kufuu started as this idea of combining the passions for anything to do with the energy transition and sustainability with the profound experience in using data science in R&D and for scaling up products and processes.
Because the method of statistical design of experiments is in fact a way to try things in a structured and targeted manner, the name had to reflect this. Asking Perplexity.ai if there was a language, which had a word for this, it turned out that the Japanese word Kufuu 工夫 means exactly this: create a scheme, devising, figuring out, or solving something ingeniously. When first announced on LinkedIn Jesse Yang added that in Chinese it also means “taking your time to get things done right”.
The second expertise at the foundation of Kufuu is scenario modelling taking into account the sociological and psychological factors supporting or hindering the success of new developments. Scenarios are an important tool to assess risks and opportunities, as they are enabling to map out “What ifs” and describe potential future developments. Winfried had worked on such a model in Shell, particularly developing the consumer choice model for passenger cars. He was able to explain the shift from Petrol to Diesel engines in larger cars in Germany, by finding that some important brands had just changed the framing by switching the cheapest model from Petrol to Diesel, and thereby creating the perception that there was no price difference between these technologies.
Finally, no sustainable change can be achieved without transferring knowledge and enabling others to continue using the methods that they have seen to be useful to overcome challenges.
About Winfried Theis, the founder
Winfried Theis is an energy transition and statistics enthusiast, who likes to come up with creative and data driven solutions. He balances these quite technical topics with a deep interest in the human aspects and impacts of the topics he works on. This led to him working on and leading teams, who worked on customer centricity. Creating solutions that make other people’s life and work better, based on their actual needs!
Bio
Winfried grew up in Nordrhein-Westfalen, Germany. He did his diploma in pure maths, writing a thesis about Knot Theory, which turned out to be linked to knots DNA forms, when making proteins. Then he moved into applied statistics for his PhD, continuing at the Technical University of Dortmund. During his PhD he worked first on a classification problem in the project “Multivariate Determination of Business Cycle Phases” in SFB475. Then he switched to a project about antibiotics in hospital sewage water working with the University of Freiburg. Finally, he wrote his thesis, Modelling Varying Amplitudes, in a project with mechanical engineers, looking at two disturbances, chatter and spiralling. Thanks to using design of experiments in the project, it was possible to understand the link between eigenfrequencies of the boring bar and the likelihood of chatter developing in the undamped process.
After his PhD he worked at MSR Consulting in Cologne, developing Customer Value Management solutions for insurances, and other data analysis tools. After two years Winfried moved to Unilever R&D in Vlaardingen, NL. At Unilever he developed a new way to plan and analyse longitudinal nutrition studies. The actual study was iron fortification in young women. The issue identified was that a classical start-end measurement, as standard in clinical trials, would not capture the process of changing the equilibrium the iron status in humans has. The development of the iron parameters was captured by adding three in-between measurements that were randomised into three time windows per person. This way it was even possible to show an average increase at the lowest dosis of iron. The most important outcome was however the proof that iron levels in healthy humans indeed level off.
Winfried worked in this time extensively with the Sensory, Perception and Behaviour department. He contributed to the development of a good mood measurement for China.
After four years at Unilever, Winfried switched to Shell Global Solutions as internal statistical consultant. Here he supported particularly the Catalysts and Lubricants R&D departments with design of experiments, both for product development as for process optimisation. The Catalysts department had several parallel reactors and a preparation robot, which allowed them to run large numbers of experiments fast. However, this made it even more important to think well about the experiments to not waste resources. It was also a catalyst project where the latest developments in design of experiments became crucial, as a project was extremely tight on budget, but still needed to understand at least the rough form of impact from its main ingredients and their interaction with process parameters. A definitive screening design allowed not just that, but even a few repeated experimental runs to understand the variability better.
In this time Winfried started work on the Road Fleet Model Scenario, for which he developed the Consumer Choice model and worked on the commercial vehicle model. For both these models he brought together technical understanding, sociological factors and data proxies for influencing factors. One shortcoming of the existing tool was that it tried to explain the full vehicle choice economically, including the size of the vehicle. This is however determined by customer needs, cultural norms, and economic situation of the country. So a share of size model was developed to reflect this and then the economic choice was only determined for the drive train. But also here psychological and social aspects were added to reflect the problem more holistically.
In 2017 Winfried became the Data Science Lead in the Advanced Analytics Center of Excellence and was responsible for building a data science team for all of Shell. In 1.5 years he grew the team from 5 to 25 people. His team worked on diverse topics from time series forecasting, over predictive maintenance, to a recommender engine for offers in the Shell Loyalty program. In 2018 he became Team Lead Customer Centricity in Data Science, retaining a team of 18 people. He then only worked with the Downstream Businesses, particularly Retail. Then after half a year Natural Language processing and Machine Vision was split out of his team, as was a team to support Trading, so he retained the core customer facing businesses. However, after the split the team had shrunk too much, so he rebuilt it back to 15 people. After COVID19 in 2021 Winfried moved with his team into IDT as Capability Centre Customer Centricity and Commercial Insights. There he led a group of more than 35 data scientists and AI Engineers, to develop data solutions for the Downstream businesses, again including Trading, which was removed again after 1.5 years.
The last 1.5 years in Shell Winfried had a strategic role to develop AI solutions for Customer Centricity.
Winfried was the webmaster of the European Network of Business and Industrial Statistics (ENBIS) from 2005 to 2010. He professionalised the website, ran a logo competition, and created a backend that made running conferences a lot easier. He was also the conference chair in Athens in 2008. After a break during his management time he is now returning to active participation in ENBIS, and nominated as President-Elect.